Here you go guys, this can also be read on WWW.Fox29.com. He also has a lot of other great info as well as excellent updating as storm nears.
MY WINTER OUTLOOK
(HOW MUCH SNOW AND HOW COLD ?
So what went into my winter forecast ? I took a look at many variables in the atmosphere and compared them with past winters(analogs).
I'm sticking with the 1985-1986 winter for now but with a twist. I'm sorry I missed the twist on the broadcast, quite frankly, I just ran out of time. Below are just some of the factors into the forecast. So here we go.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
This swing in the low and high pressures over the Atlantic plays a big part in where a storm track will develop and how much cold air follows.
Looking over the past few months you see swings up and down. It looks to continue that pattern into the winter. We'll see pieces of winter not a drawn out cold and snowy 4 months.
Look for a few mild periods in Early December and again in Early January. Temps in the 60s are quite possible during these runs.
The colder , sometimes snowier side of NAO (Negative Phase) will be here in Mid and late November, Mid and Late December and February.
Expect below normal temps during these periods and some snow in Mid December and quite a bit possible in February. I'll get to snowfall in a minute.
ENSO (EL-NINO--SOUTHERN OSCILLATION)
No real El Nino this winter or La Nina so the pattern will be rather NEUTRAL. However, we have been getting reports of a small El Nino forming. This could be part of my "X" factor or twist.
A small El Nino could get one good snow event going and pop my totals to above normal. Predicting a good snowstorm this far out is tough to do. The other "X" factor or twist is the tropics. More on that below.
The tropics have been popping of late and have really aided to the last 5 severe weather events here.
Ever since the "Henri" leftovers we have seen our fair share of tropical weather and its tropical connections. This will be the "X" factor this winter. Do we connect with all this heat in the tropics ? If we do, will it be on the same timing as the Negative NAO ? This again is tough to predict but all I can say is it is out there. That connection of the negative NAO and Tropics "could" bring another big storm this winter. My gut feeling is we don't get it.
SNOW COVER IN CANADA..........
Now this may change in the coming weeks so check back for my December 1 winter update.
Snow cover is much less than last year and below normal for late October. This will modify the cold air sooner as it comes our way and help make some of those snow events either snow to rain or all rain. That will bring down the totals to near normal and cancel out the possible tropics "X " factor.
TEMPS THIS WINTER..........
I think the negative NAO phases will out number the positive ones. This is why I am predicting 1.5 below normal temps for the winter ahead. The problem might be when it gets cold we may "not "get the snow.
SNOWFALL THIS WINTER
Look for a near normal winter with 21" in Philly, 20" in Wilm, 23" in Trenton, 16" Atlantic City, 18" Millville area, 27" Reading, 28" Lancaster, 32" in Allentown, 27" in King of Prussia, 27" in Quakertown, 24" Langhorne, 26" Amber, 17" Long Beach Island, 18" in Dover, 15" Rehoboth Beach, 17" in Georgetown DE, 45" Poconos, 27" Collegeville, 28" Coatesville.
I don't have a problem with weather like that in November. Got 2 great fishing trips in over the weekend without having to shiver like usual for this time of year. When it happens in late December & January, which has happened a few times in the past 5 or so years, then it's really sad! :headwall