http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2003/s2126.htm Looks like still equal chances for anything on the east coast..
Noaa Issues Winter Outlook Update
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Woofsplow I hate to break it you, but it looks like no snow for most of the east coast until at least early December. From what I've seen in the forecasts it looks like the cold air will eventually get here but its going to take its time, unlike last year.
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81 Posts
Is it me or does it seem like since last winter we have had above normal precipitation? It is eventually going to get cold here so lets keep our fingers crossed that mother nature combines the 2 and gives us a lot of the white stuff.
the weather this year is driving me crazy. Today it's 65 degrees tomorrow could be in the forties, yesturday it was 40 degrees and raining overnight was in the 50's. Normal temps should be in the high 30's to low 40's. If the temps keep going up and down the ground will never get cold enough to support any accumalation of snow:headwall ::headwall :headwall
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5,917 Posts
"Equal Chances" I like that term
Maybe the local weathermen should start using that instead of yes it will snow and having us wake up to nothing they should say there are EQUAL CHANCES for snow or no snow tomorrow.
Jay
Maybe the local weathermen should start using that instead of yes it will snow and having us wake up to nothing they should say there are EQUAL CHANCES for snow or no snow tomorrow.
Jay
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81 Posts
I tell yeah, weathermen have the easiest job in the world. They have all these high tech weather computers and radars, what do they really need to know. I think I could do as good a job looking at the jet stream and high and lows and making a forcast, and when you mess up, you don't lose your job. Plus they make tons of money. payup It must be nice. :huh
NNJ Winter Weather Forecast
Here is a link for Sussex County weather here in Northern NJ. This guy is supposed to have about an 80 to 85% accuracy on his predication.
http://www.sussexcountyweather.com/index.htm
Winter Weather Forecast 2003-2004
(Posted September 15, 2003)
Last year was a great winter if you liked snow and cold. The BIG event was the CHRISTmas Day blizzard, which was predicted and arrived right on schedule. The below normal cold and well above normal snowfall was not. Of course forecasting weather is difficult to predict several days in advance, let alone several months. It is not an exact science. Neither do I guarantee any winter weather forecast.
The Winter of 2003-2004 will overall be normal with respect to temperatures with normal to above snowfall. (Meteorological winter is the period December, January and February). Astronomical winter is the period December 21st (the first day of winter) through March 21st (the first day of spring).
Christmas will be Green and not White with a snowstorm arriving between Christmas and New Year's Day producing a white New Years.
Look for a monster Nor'Easter snowstorm sometime in January producing over 2 feet. This one will have the potential to exceed 30". Some areas will be measuring drifts by the yard! A cold snap immediately after this storm will bring temperatures to as cold as -15 to -20°F in some valley locations in the county. The deep snow cover with clear, windless nights will produce this cold (radiational cooling). Another cold snap in February will bring the temperatures one morning below zero again. March will produce an elevation snowstorm with some of the highest locations i.e. Sparta Mountain, Highland Lakes, High Point etc. receiving over 12".
This fall we will experience a mini dry spell but will see an increase in precipitation to above normal each month as the winter progresses.
*Active periods to watch: Prediction Actual
October 18-20 FROSTY Temperature lows were in the 20's and low 30's each day. 20th saw temps in the mid 20's in some locations
November 7-9 Cold front arrived late on the 7th bringing us a very cold weekend. Record low for the date was tied on the 9th dropping to 13° in Layton. Snow flurries on the 8th during the morning with strong winds.
December 5th
December 8th COLD
December 26-28th SNOWY
January 4-7 SNOW
January 16-19 Very Cold
January 29
February 2-4 SNOW
February 6
February 23-25
March 7-9
April 6-8
* Forecasts are only a prediction based on my interpretations of the atmosphere. Forecasts are based on upper air currents, moon phases, sea surface temperatures (SST), sun spots, analog years, El Nino, La Nina and other factors. It is based on a formula I derived from many years of research.
Here is a link for Sussex County weather here in Northern NJ. This guy is supposed to have about an 80 to 85% accuracy on his predication.
http://www.sussexcountyweather.com/index.htm
Winter Weather Forecast 2003-2004
(Posted September 15, 2003)
Last year was a great winter if you liked snow and cold. The BIG event was the CHRISTmas Day blizzard, which was predicted and arrived right on schedule. The below normal cold and well above normal snowfall was not. Of course forecasting weather is difficult to predict several days in advance, let alone several months. It is not an exact science. Neither do I guarantee any winter weather forecast.
The Winter of 2003-2004 will overall be normal with respect to temperatures with normal to above snowfall. (Meteorological winter is the period December, January and February). Astronomical winter is the period December 21st (the first day of winter) through March 21st (the first day of spring).
Christmas will be Green and not White with a snowstorm arriving between Christmas and New Year's Day producing a white New Years.
Look for a monster Nor'Easter snowstorm sometime in January producing over 2 feet. This one will have the potential to exceed 30". Some areas will be measuring drifts by the yard! A cold snap immediately after this storm will bring temperatures to as cold as -15 to -20°F in some valley locations in the county. The deep snow cover with clear, windless nights will produce this cold (radiational cooling). Another cold snap in February will bring the temperatures one morning below zero again. March will produce an elevation snowstorm with some of the highest locations i.e. Sparta Mountain, Highland Lakes, High Point etc. receiving over 12".
This fall we will experience a mini dry spell but will see an increase in precipitation to above normal each month as the winter progresses.
*Active periods to watch: Prediction Actual
October 18-20 FROSTY Temperature lows were in the 20's and low 30's each day. 20th saw temps in the mid 20's in some locations
November 7-9 Cold front arrived late on the 7th bringing us a very cold weekend. Record low for the date was tied on the 9th dropping to 13° in Layton. Snow flurries on the 8th during the morning with strong winds.
December 5th
December 8th COLD
December 26-28th SNOWY
January 4-7 SNOW
January 16-19 Very Cold
January 29
February 2-4 SNOW
February 6
February 23-25
March 7-9
April 6-8
* Forecasts are only a prediction based on my interpretations of the atmosphere. Forecasts are based on upper air currents, moon phases, sea surface temperatures (SST), sun spots, analog years, El Nino, La Nina and other factors. It is based on a formula I derived from many years of research.
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866 Posts
Looks Promising!!!
This looks good- but it is central/Northern NY- and if you don't like the weather, just wait 5 mins and it will change for you.
I also keep forgetting that we only have two seasons in my neck of the woods- Winter and Road Construction!!!
Bill
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EST THU NOV 27 2003
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ARKANSAS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARM
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE JUST RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.
STEADY SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK.
THE SNOW MAY BE ENHANCED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY MORNING
AS COLDER AIR CROSSES THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM CENTER LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.
THE SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY WINDS WHICH MAY GUST
OVER 30 MILES PER HOUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE.
THE PATH THIS STORM TAKES WILL DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
ACTUALLY FALLS. SINCE THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/
This looks good- but it is central/Northern NY- and if you don't like the weather, just wait 5 mins and it will change for you.
I also keep forgetting that we only have two seasons in my neck of the woods- Winter and Road Construction!!!
Bill
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EST THU NOV 27 2003
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ARKANSAS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARM
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE JUST RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.
STEADY SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK.
THE SNOW MAY BE ENHANCED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY MORNING
AS COLDER AIR CROSSES THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM CENTER LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.
THE SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY WINDS WHICH MAY GUST
OVER 30 MILES PER HOUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE.
THE PATH THIS STORM TAKES WILL DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
ACTUALLY FALLS. SINCE THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/
Re: Looks Promising!!!
THE SNOW MAY BE ENHANCED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY MORNING
AS COLDER AIR CROSSES THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.
This is the type of weather forcast I look forward to. Now we will have to wait to see if it is actually going to happen. Like Bill said in CNY just wait 5 mins and the weather will change.
THE SNOW MAY BE ENHANCED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY MORNING
AS COLDER AIR CROSSES THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.
This is the type of weather forcast I look forward to. Now we will have to wait to see if it is actually going to happen. Like Bill said in CNY just wait 5 mins and the weather will change.
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1,314 Posts
It'll be nice if we get some good snowfall as that storm passes through here but the weather guessers arent sure what it going to bring to us...
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