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From the noaa website...Nov. 6, 2003 — The world may soon be getting an early holiday gift. Scientists at NOAA are observing oceanic telltale signs the climate phenomenon known as El Niño may be back in a weak form just in time for the holidays.

The November 6 release of NOAA Climate Prediction Center's monthly El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion reports warmer-than-normal surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures were observed in most of the equatorial Tropical Pacific in the month of October 2003. "Based on the sea surface temperature observations for September, October, and those projected for the rest of November, as well as the NOAA definition for El Niño events, there is an above average likelihood sea-surface temperature conditions will be characterized as a weak or borderline El Niño by the end of November,"
It is likely warmer-than-average conditions (borderline El Niño/ ENSO-neutral) will persist in the equatorial Pacific through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2003-04. However, (at this time), CPC does not anticipate major impacts from this event on U.S. winter weather.
 
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