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Discussion Starter #81 (Edited)
I didn’t create a second accountant until after I got banned. I got banned for reasons I am not completely sure of but seem to revolve around my dark sense of irony and training to kill while embracing the sanctity of life.
 

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Discussion Starter #85 (Edited)
No - Reopen the economy, let the businesses that want to open reopen, let the people who want to work, go back to work, remove the $600 weekly bonus to encourage people NOT to work, and you'll see 50% (or better) of that unemployment disappear like magic.
Demand requires a couple of things: 1) the willingness to spend cash or the necessary credit to purchase and 2) a reasonable belief in the stability of the economy. So, if you believe you that the economy is working fine and that 6-7 months from today you will be employed then you will purchase items. If you don't believe that the economy will be working properly 6-7 months from now you put off purchases and save your funds. This is called the Paradox of Thrift. Usually, when you see a demand side downturn like this one the biggest problem is that people are saving funds for a rainy day of if or when this virus hits hard again. Another big problem in our economy is that prior to the shut-down or Corna-Coma as I call it-- the economy had two bad signs: 60% of the population couldn't afford a $1,000.00 emergency and 2) $3.5 Trillion in personal debt. Most of this debt incurred because instead of paying living wages in America we are getting substandard wages and excessive credit that makes people debtors for life. But, that is another piece. I will leave that issue out of the discussion. So, right here we have two major problems to overcome. The lack of general liquidity in the vast majority of the population's bank accounts and the overwhelming necessity of credit to supplement the average salary. Hard to create new demand when most of your income is paying off old debts. This problem wasn't caused by the Pandemic but it was pushed to the forefront.

So, when you say $600.00 USD extra per check in the unemployment checks to not work -- this is false. Unemployment insurance is only paid to those who have worked 26 weeks at least and fired for reasons that do not violate it. For example a no-call no show might be a reason for termination that gets your Unemployment claim denied. Or perhaps you lied about your educational background and it was discovered finally. The point is unemployment insurance doesn't decrease people willing to work. And further more $600.00 extra might not make your unemployment claim equal to your previous pay. States normally pay between 35-45% of your current pay. Let's say you're making $2500.00 per week gross and your state does 45% of your benefits if untaxed would be $1725.00 or you would be seeing a loss of $425.00 per month. In four months that would be $1700.00 in lost income. Doesn't sound bad until you realize that $1700.00 lost in those four months is lost disposable income that would have been spent on things other than necessities. And you have to remember that if you believe that in four months you're income will drop again to $1125.00 when the extra $600.00 disappears. You're even more careful because income has dropped by more than %50. So, just because we have a slight rise in unemployment pay benefits doesn't mean we have a stable growth in demand. Especially, if your likelihood of getting a job in the future that pays as well is limited.

cwren2472 said:
If the government mandated tomorrow that 50% of the workforce quit working resulting in 50% unemployment, would we then say that those people had lost their jobs because the economy was in catastrophic turmoil? No. It would be a disaster created by the government. So the 6 o'clock news can make all the comparisons to the Great Depression they want, it doesn't mean that the situations are actually related in any way.
Yes, the problem with our economy is not exactly the same as the Great Depression. It was not created by fraudulently created stock prices that finally burst. That was 2007-2009--but, what is the same the scope and size of the impact of problem as the Great Depression. It also shares the immediate and catastrophic collapse of the demand function. Also just as I predicted the fall in prices of commodities is creating a deflationary push in the economy. This also happened in the Great Depression as prices fell and the loss of jobs continued real wages took a hit early on. It was until 1933 that we say an increase in real wages due to the increase of government spending. And just like the 1930's the 2020 economy is facing massive layoffs, wage reductions, and price reductions which creates a cyclical action where the prices keep declining trying to find buyers, companies keep laying off workers or reduce hours and pay, and the dollar keeps deflating. This in-turn makes investments bought pre-deflationary period worth less than the interest or dividends they are getting now. So, the propensity to save increases for certain items and the lending cycle is disrupted . Due to the fact people stop burrowing because the dollars they are paying back are worth more then the initial amount. It hurts towns because now their old bond principles are less then their current interest rates. So, road work and other municipal projects are cancelled and then the tax base decreases because jobs are lost and revenue that would have been spent into the economy disappears which only harms the long term health of small economies like the town I live in. In short Deflation is more problematic in the long run than a small amount of inflation. Because why do you want to pay $200.00 extra a month in interest payments on a principle that has declined in value by $1000.00? And Bloomberg news just reported that we are seeing signs of deflation occurring already.

So, here is how you fix the problem use the power of the government's fiscal policy to act as the purchaser of last resort. Essentially, artificially keep demand high by purchasing materials, goods, and supplies from companies that cannot warehouse their goods or stop production. The ones that can stop production pay them to not produce because that will keep them fully functionally. And finally start to shift to different industries that are green and sustainable for long term growth.
 

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the economy had two bad signs: 60% of the population couldn't afford a $1,000.00 emergency
Yeah, that is nothing new

and 2) $3.5 Trillion in personal debt.
Nor is that. Failure to save and make good financial decisions is not a disease.

Most of this debt incurred because instead of paying living wages in America we are getting substandard wages and excessive credit that makes people debtors for life.
Disagree. You say "we" yet you personally seem to have a lot of disposable income to throw at very non-essential relics of trucks for someone who sucks grease out of things. Frankly, I know plenty of people making close to what I make or more and yet they have massive amounts of debt. Invariably it's because the American way is to spend, spend, spend while keeping up with the Jones'. If you don't have $1,000 in the bank yet can swing a loan on a $50,000 car that you are texting-and-driving in on your $1,200 iphone, that is not because you are underpaid.


So, when you say $600.00 USD extra per check in the unemployment checks to not work -- this is false. Unemployment insurance is only paid to those who have worked 26 weeks at least and fired for reasons that do not violate it. For example a no-call no show might be a reason for termination that gets your Unemployment claim denied.
You are correct - yet I'm sure you have heard on the news of employers running into issues trying to get employees to return. If you haven't, here's some reading:

Bitter Taste For Coffee Shop Owner, As New $600 Jobless Benefit Drove Her To Close
How to lure back California workers making more on unemployment than they did on the job
Some can earn more on unemployment. Why go back to work?
My employer has called me back to work. Do I have to return?

Or perhaps you lied about your educational background and it was discovered finally.
Worry not - I have proof of my worthless degree in a cute leatherette binder in my bookcase somewhere

The point is unemployment insurance doesn't decrease people willing to work. And further more $600.00 extra might not make your unemployment claim equal to your previous pay. States normally pay between 35-45% of your current pay.
See links above

And you have to remember that if you believe that in four months you're income will drop again to $1125.00 when the extra $600.00 disappears.
And the kind of people who can't save $300 ever despite making $700 a week will worry about the $600 disappearing when it disappears

Also just as I predicted the fall in prices of commodities is creating a deflationary push in the economy. This also happened in the Great Depression as prices fell and the loss of jobs continued real wages took a hit early on
Ok, you mean like the cost of oil fell. Oops, that's because people were forced to stay home so usage plummeted. You mean like the cost of meats. Oops, wait, that has skyrocketed due to workers being forced to stay home so the ability to produce it plummeted.

It hurts towns because now their old bond principles are less then their current interest rates. So, road work and other municipal projects are cancelled
I have no idea if this is even vaguely true but I can say while I was personally furloughed and drove to McDonalds for my morning coffee, I was never able to drive the same route to it twice thanks to endless road projects closing every damn road I tried to take.


So, here is how you fix the problem use the power of the government's fiscal policy to act as the purchaser of last resort. Essentially, artificially keep demand high by purchasing materials, goods, and supplies from companies that cannot warehouse their goods or stop production. The ones that can stop production pay them to not produce because that will keep them fully functionally. And finally start to shift to different industries that are green and sustainable for long term growth.
Or, here's a thought. Let people go back to work, resume making the money they were making, resume buying the products they were buying. Bonus: those people will go back to paying exorbitant taxes just like they were before in the form of income, sales, etc. I'm sure you have to approve of that.
 

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Discussion Starter #88
duplicate
I will reply in greater depth but if you refuse to come back to work after being laid off temporarily you have quit. Now, if you were fired with no promise of returning to the job you could possibly get away with refusing to return. However, given the fact states have record unemployment they are looking for any reason to remove that cost. They will most likely put you down as voluntarily quitting.

sucking grease is a noble occupation but we also install hoods, fans, make up air and cooking equipment... here is a hood picture. We are bidding on a renovation this summer for a complete kitchen that is going to be in the $200k range or higher. This hood system in the picture was $45k all said and done.
 

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sucking grease is a noble occupation but we also install hoods, fans, make up air and cooking equipment... here is a hood picture. We are bidding on a renovation this summer for a complete kitchen that is going to be in the $200k range or higher. This hood system in the picture was $45k all said and done.
Sorry, I was being facetious. I was making the point that paupers on minimum wage don't blow cash regularly on money pit vehicles.

But since you mentioned it, I would assume that the company you work for has been very hard hit seeing as how the restaurant industry has been the biggest casualty of the shutdowns. I would think that you would be very supportive of ending them and sending people back to work.
 

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Discussion Starter #90
Sorry, I was being facetious. I was making the point that paupers on minimum wage don't blow cash regularly on money pit vehicles.

But since you mentioned it, I would assume that the company you work for has been very hard hit seeing as how the restaurant industry has been the biggest casualty of the shutdowns. I would think that you would be very supportive of ending them and sending people back to work.
I dont care about the grease sucking comments... it’s just one of our services we offer.

as for my disposable income some people buy vacations I buy Walter Trucks. It’s a trade off ....

I run the company it is a family business that turned into a worker’s cooperative. We got hit hard no doubt and the PPP is helping a bit. But, we created a plan to save the company before the PPP even happened. We all planned on cutting our salaries by 25% and deferred some bonuses and other things. But I got a ELID and PPP Loans so full paychecks have been our process since this has started. Which is great and we figured out how to raise wages by $0.50 per hour to offset some increases in prices. Which is great for everyone.
long term we are planning on bigger things and expanding into other services once we get NYS open more we are advertising our corona cleaning process to help out restaurants.
 

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Discussion Starter #93

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"weighed down by a plunge in demand for gasoline and services including airline travel as Americans stayed home during the coronavirus crisis."

As I said - another artificial decline entirely caused by the shutdowns, not the economy itself
 

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Discussion Starter #97
Yeah, that is nothing new



Nor is that. Failure to save and make good financial decisions is not a disease.



Disagree. You say "we" yet you personally seem to have a lot of disposable income to throw at very non-essential relics of trucks for someone who sucks grease out of things. Frankly, I know plenty of people making close to what I make or more and yet they have massive amounts of debt. Invariably it's because the American way is to spend, spend, spend while keeping up with the Jones'. If you don't have $1,000 in the bank yet can swing a loan on a $50,000 car that you are texting-and-driving in on your $1,200 iphone, that is not because you are underpaid.
Well it is a failure of the system if you're exit college with debt and have no hope to ever really pay it down. Consumer driven economics is based on spending. I don't know how you expect the economy to operate without spending? That is the engine of the economy the ability to spend money. It's why you're computer is out of date 18 months after its purchase; your appliances now die every 5-10 years instead of 30 years; and your car old before the end of the calendar year. This the problem with an economy based on mass consumption-- it has to consumer at ever increasing levels to maintain itself and to continue to self-reproduce. But, with our brand of economic growth the answer is to not only strip the excess capital out our own countries production but to also strip it out of the world as well-- Capitalism is nothing more than a non-state based Mercantilism.

So, you will have to explain to me how we can have a consumer economy without spending. I find this notion that debt is a moral issue most amusing. This idea that you have to stay out of debt at all costs. It is a fantastic fraud if you ask me. How do you save money when you're salary is below the minimal level needed to pay for rent, food, car payments, and so on? That is the magic of credit. Since 1974 the average salary has seen a decrease in real wages when compare to productivity and inflation. If you accept the fact that inflation has grown steadily from 1974 to present you will find that $2.75 was minimum wage in 1974 roughly and today Federal minimum wage is $7.25 if you do the inflation adjustments-- it should be more like $25.50. Which would be great for the economy since it would drive growth in this endlessly expanding consumerism. That is the key to consumerist economics like it or not. Personally, I don't but it is the system were dealing with.




Cwren2472 said:
The key factor in these articles is the hypothetical fear of increased unemployment-- which is beyond absurd since we both know that employers can fight these claims by simply stating they were temporary furloughs. As for making more then they would at their regular job-- doesn't de-incentivize the return to work it is should incentivize the employers to raise wages. But, with 33 million people out of work. Don't expect to see wages returning to present levels any time soon without change in our governments fiscal policy. In fact I would suspect that right now has given many employers the magical circumstances they've been looking for a long time to remove large portions of the payroll and replace with part-time labor at lower rates and zero benefits.

So, a few smaller employers might find an initial problem with staffing during the first part of the reopening. But, within a short time once the States start to cut unemployment and federal dollars become more scarce-- these small employers will find the job markets are over following with labor working at subprime prices!



Cwren2472 said:
Worry not - I have proof of my worthless degree in a cute leatherette binder in my bookcase somewhere
I wasn't actually pointing you out exactly. I was merely giving it as a cause. I have a cousin's husband who has been fired for lying about his college degree.



See links above


Cwren2472 said:
And the kind of people who can't save $300 ever despite making $700 a week will worry about the $600 disappearing when it disappears
In my county in NYS Greene --- now, look you possibly track down my beautiful fleet of Walters... moving on. The average salary needed to rent a 1 brd apartment and pay only 30% of your salary on rent is $18.40 per hour. The average salary in our county per hour is about $16.50 making you almost $2.00 shy of the required amount. So, how do you save $300 a month on $700 dollars per week if your expenses are $2000.00 per month? Most people are living right at the ragged edge.



cwren2472 said:
Ok, you mean like the cost of oil fell. Oops, that's because people were forced to stay home so usage plummeted. You mean like the cost of meats. Oops, wait, that has skyrocketed due to workers being forced to stay home so the ability to produce it plummeted.
Actually, the Oil markets are taking a double whammy-- first you had the Saudi-Russian oil duel. Which forced the market into over producing. With Saudi Arabia trying to push the Russians out of the oil market by first driving down the price then halting production. That didn't work. Instead they both pushed the market into deflation. This was then compounded with loss of consumer demand by slowing down the economy.

Merely, turning the economy on right now won't help now.



cwren2472 said:
I have no idea if this is even vaguely true but I can say while I was personally furloughed and drove to McDonalds for my morning coffee, I was never able to drive the same route to it twice thanks to endless road projects closing every damn road I tried to take.
Some of those projects were already scheduled to go and paid for with a bonds already floated. We should see more of this.





cwren2472 said:
Or, here's a thought. Let people go back to work, resume making the money they were making, resume buying the products they were buying. Bonus: those people will go back to paying exorbitant taxes just like they were before in the form of income, sales, etc. I'm sure you have to approve of that.
One, these myths of demand appearing out of thin air is unbelievable. Two, I'm not that into taxes as you think.
 

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Discussion Starter #98
"weighed down by a plunge in demand for gasoline and services including airline travel as Americans stayed home during the coronavirus crisis."

As I said - another artificial decline entirely caused by the shutdowns, not the economy itself
No one is saying the cause isn't because of the shutdown. What I am saying is that our response has to be exactly like the Great Depression because the results are the same.
 

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Discussion Starter #99
Oh wow Fred G is the new Alex Jones inspired Drudge Report for P. Site.... we need one over here to compete.
 

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Well it is a failure of the system if you're exit college with debt and have no hope to ever really pay it down.
Agreed. But unlike Elizabeth Warren who feels that the lenders are to blame, I blame the colleges that charge $60,000 per year for a mediocre school while professors like Elizabeth Warren collect $400,000 salaries. At least in my day, my poorly chosen college education was in the low 4 digits per year.

Consumer driven economics is based on spending. I don't know how you expect the economy to operate without spending? That is the engine of the economy the ability to spend money.
Spending will return will people go back to the same activities they did before they were forced to stop.


I find this notion that debt is a moral issue most amusing. This idea that you have to stay out of debt at all costs. It is a fantastic fraud if you ask me. How do you save money when you're salary is below the minimal level needed to pay for rent, food, car payments, and so on?
I won't say that no one lives on low wages - my problem is with the premise that the average person can't survive without incurring massive debt on an average salary. And that average person is a hard working, studious individual who just can't earn a decent living because of those evil CEOs. We have a set of friends who make decent money yet were nearly into foreclosure thanks to poor money management and we had to loan them money to bail them out (yet to be repaid.) But these same friends are also the ones who feel the need to spend 3 times what we do every time we eat out. If you can't pay your mortgage, don't order 3 $9 drinks to go with your $38 steak. Yes, I am well aware that is purely anecdotal.

That is the magic of credit. Since 1974 the average salary has seen a decrease in real wages when compare to productivity and inflation. If you accept the fact that inflation has grown steadily from 1974 to present you will find that $2.75 was minimum wage in 1974 roughly and today Federal minimum wage is $7.25 if you do the inflation adjustments-- it should be more like $25.50. Which would be great for the economy since it would drive growth in this endlessly expanding consumerism. That is the key to consumerist economics like it or not. Personally, I don't but it is the system were dealing with.
From the first hit in a Google search
"The percentage of hourly paid workers earning the prevailing federal minimum wage or less declined from 2.7 percent in 2016 to 2.3 percent in 2017. "

For all the talk of the minimum wage being pathetically low (and, I'll grant the Federal is) the fact is that few people actually make that. And the percentage of those who are full time working adults is presumably even lower.


I wasn't actually pointing you out exactly. I was merely giving it as a cause.
I know - I was just being funny


In my county in NYS Greene --- now, look you possibly track down my beautiful fleet of Walters...
I'll save my Google Earth search for them till later. I'm bizzie.

moving on. The average salary needed to rent a 1 brd apartment and pay only 30% of your salary on rent is $18.40 per hour. The average salary in our county per hour is about $16.50 making you almost $2.00 shy of the required amount. So, how do you save $300 a month on $700 dollars per week if your expenses are $2000.00 per month? Most people are living right at the ragged edge.
I'm aware that the cost of living in some areas is exorbitant - I am not fully opposed to subsidies to some people in some areas. But if you can afford a pack of cigarettes a day at $10 per pack, you can throw $10 a week into a savings account.



Two, I'm not that into taxes as you think.
How can you argue for massive government spending to the tune of $35 trillion and not expect massive taxes to follow at some point?


No one is saying the cause isn't because of the shutdown. What I am saying is that our response has to be exactly like the Great Depression because the results are the same.
Disagree. That is like saying that stomach cancer and indigestion should both be treated the same because they cause the same symptoms. If the cause is completely different, then logically the solution should be as well.
 
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